Uncommon Sense
May 2026 Newsletter
The weather is slowly turning, and so are the markets!
While the US-Iran conflict is not yet settled, the financial world has turned its gaze to the earnings growth of the great companies of the world. For those investors who stayed patient in March, it’s been another opportunity to learn from past events.
We explore this theme further in this month’s newsletter by looking at the events that investors have been forced to endure in the 2020’s.
The rest of this month’s newsletter is packed with ideas and links that you may find interesting. As always, we’re here if you’d like to discuss how any of these ideas might apply to your unique situation.
The Stock Markets
Inflation – The Real Enemy
📰 Read
What’s the Value of One Day? [10 minutes]. A beautifully written piece that will make you rethink what you’re saving for.
Survival is the Only Success [5 minutes]. The most important investing lesson isn’t how to win big, it’s how to avoid the kind of loss you can never come back from.
The Reframing Theory: The solution to 95% of your problems [8 minutes]. You don’t need a different life. You need a different lens.
Has the World Really Become More Uncertain for Investors? [7 minutes]. The world feels more uncertain right now, but is it really true?
Long-Term Money [4 minutes]. What if your children appearing “spoiled” is exactly what your hard work was always supposed to achieve?
🍿 Watch
How the Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life
😀 Rational Optimism
The media is not a friend of the disciplined and patient investor. Ignoring the key determinants of lifetime investor returns, the media focuses on short-term returns, market predictions, and negative news.
We present the following as an antidote to the onslaught of negative news:
Humanoid Robots Race Past Humans in Beijing Half-Marathon
Tesla Supervised Self-Driving Software Gets Dutch Okay
The New Jobs Being Created by AI
🎧 Listen
The Previous Week’s Newspaper [4 minutes]. Reflecting on a provocative idea from Nassim Taleb: If you want to break your addiction to the news, try reading it a week later.
A Tale of the 2020s
Investing is both a science and an art.
The science of investing can be learned in books, the classroom, and by following your curiosity online. Understanding inflation, interest rates, asset allocations and legislation gives you the foundation for becoming a successful investor.
But it’s the art of investing that will ultimately determine your success. And the art of investing cannot be learned in a textbook. It gets taught to us by the events we live through. The events we see coming, and the events that blindside us. But only if we learn from them.
From time to time, it benefits us to reflect on history so that we can be more prepared for the future.
Six Years in Events
It’s now been six and a bit years since the start of 2020. In that time, investors have been through a lot. With markets currently calm, but having recently come through the US-Iran chaos that isn’t quite finished, this is a good moment to look back at what we’ve actually faced, and what those experiences can teach us.
We tend to think of major market events as something that happens every few years, with mostly quiet stretches in between. The recent past has been busier. We can’t predict whether the next six years will look the same, but what we’ve lived through over the past six years is worth a deliberate look.
- March 2020. The Covid pandemic shuts down the global economy. Markets fall 34% in 32 days.
- February to October 2022. Russia invades Ukraine in February. Global inflation hits 40-year highs, the rate hike cycle begins, and markets enter a bear market in June.
- September 2022. Liz Truss’s UK mini-budget triggers a gilt market crisis.
- March 2023. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, and Credit Suisse all collapse within weeks. Fears of a 2008-style banking crisis.
- October 2023. Hamas-Israel war begins.
- August 2024. The yen carry trade unwinds. The Nikkei has its worst day since 1987, and global markets follow.
- January 2025. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek triggers a global tech sell-off. NVIDIA loses $589 billion in a single day.
- April 2025. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs trigger a 12% S&P 500 decline in seven days.
- March 2026. The US-Iran conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz. Markets fall around 10% from recent highs.
Six Years In Numbers
At the end of 2019, just before any of this began, the S&P 500 (often used as a benchmark for the global equity market) closed at around 3,231. At the end of April 2026, it sits at 7,209, having recently passed 7,000 for the first time. That’s a gain of 123% over six years.
In 2019, the companies that make up the S&P 500 collectively earned around $139 per share. In 2025, they earned around $253 per share. The businesses you own through a diversified portfolio are earning substantially more than they were six years ago, despite living through everything on the list above.
How many of these events were you losing sleep over at the time? None of these worries were wrong. The events were serious, and being concerned about the world is a normal response. However, hindsight gives us a perspective we couldn’t have at the time.
It shows that short-term feelings and long-term meaning often operate on different time scales. For many long-term investors, the risk of missing a recovery can be as significant as the discomfort of a decline.
The Balance We’re Trying to Hold
Staying informed about the world matters. The challenge for a long-term investor is not letting that information derail your plan. The two can pull in opposite directions, particularly when the headlines are loud.
If you’ve remained invested through these six years, in line with your long-term plan, you’ve learned lessons that will strengthen your resolve if the rest of the decade brings similar uncertainty.
The smart investor’s challenge is to internalise the lessons and be prepared for the next test. That’s how you learn the art of investing.
Compliance disclaimers:
The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise. You may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance should be used as a guide only and is not a guarantee of future performance.
🖼️ A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words
Every S&P 500 Company in One Giant Chart
The Smartest AI Models of 2026
Ranked: How Much People Save Around the World
We hope that you enjoyed this month’s newsletter. Please let us know what you enjoyed, or write back with any of your own news.
As always, we’re here for you.
See you next month,
Halcyon Financial Planning
